by
Economics is known as the "dismal science." But not when it's in the hands of financial-thriller author Paul Erdman--also author of The Silver Bears, The Crash of '79 and Zero Coupon.
Here's the scenario Erdman paints for this one:
(Q) What if the countries of Mexico, Brazil and Venezuela announced their intent to default on their sovereign debt loans?
(A) Well, they'd be screwed--no US bank (not to mention the IMF and World Bank) would ever extend credit to them ever again!
(Q) Yeah, but what if, at the same time, the Swiss National Bank were assembling a consortium of European banks to extend loans to Venezuela, et al...based on the collateral of oil?
(A) Hmmm...well, in that case, we'd have a crisis: If foreign countries with deposits in, say, Bank of America feared that the Latin American default would imperil the security of their deposits...money would fly out of Bank of America with a Giant Sucking Sound! Naturally, the US Federal Reserve and other Government institutions would have to step in with emergency liquidity
(Q) Yeah, but suppose Venezuela had also contracted the assassination of the US Chairman of the Federal Reserve, the head of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) and the US Comptroller of the Currency?
(A) Well, then you'd have an outright PANIC!
Here's the scenario Erdman paints for this one:
(Q) What if the countries of Mexico, Brazil and Venezuela announced their intent to default on their sovereign debt loans?
(A) Well, they'd be screwed--no US bank (not to mention the IMF and World Bank) would ever extend credit to them ever again!
(Q) Yeah, but what if, at the same time, the Swiss National Bank were assembling a consortium of European banks to extend loans to Venezuela, et al...based on the collateral of oil?
(A) Hmmm...well, in that case, we'd have a crisis: If foreign countries with deposits in, say, Bank of America feared that the Latin American default would imperil the security of their deposits...money would fly out of Bank of America with a Giant Sucking Sound! Naturally, the US Federal Reserve and other Government institutions would have to step in with emergency liquidity
(Q) Yeah, but suppose Venezuela had also contracted the assassination of the US Chairman of the Federal Reserve, the head of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) and the US Comptroller of the Currency?
(A) Well, then you'd have an outright PANIC!
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